NFL DRAFT ANALYSIS

Here is Flapjacks own 2009 NFL Draft Analysis brought to you by our very own Jeezy...

JEEZY’S TOP 33 POLISH PICKS

The Detroit Lions have three of the top 33 picks in the 2009 NFL Draft. It’s time to end the “Curse of Bobby Layne” and get things on track. Fifty years is a long time! On the theory that anyone can do better than Lion’s management in picking players, I have put together my “Top 33 Polish Picks.” And . . . as one blogger put it, “anyone can come up with better Lion’s picks than that jack ass Mel Kiper.” Mel, by the way, had Mike Williams ranked number 1; Charles Rogers ranked number 2; and, Joey Harrington ranked in the top 5 in the years that they became Lions’ selections. Williams is still fat and slow. Rogers is still smoking dope and incarcerated. Harrington is still playing the concert piano and third on his team’s depth chart.
In the spirit of moving from passively sitting on the side lines to trying to make a difference, here is a break out of the potential first round picks for the Lions to consider:
Top Five Picks:
· Matthew Stafford – QB – Georgia. Analysts love to pick apart Stafford’s prospects to be a franchise quarterback. Let’s see . . . . He is acknowledged to have the best arm in college football and is compared to Jay Cutler – but that’s a problem because he tries occasionally to throw the ball “into small windows.” Huh? He stands over 6’2” and weighs 226 – but he’s “too small.” He was a three year starter starting 37 games, but he’s inexperienced and came out too soon. ESPN study says Quarterbacks turning pro after junior year are statistically unlikely to succeed, but how many senior QB’s do you think started for a full three seasons before entering the draft – a stat ESPN did not consider? And . . . he ran a faster 40 than other QB’s and can do a double somersault off a diving board – but he’s not athletic. Bottom line – forget this crap from the analysts, Stafford has an incredible arm; he’s bright, hard working and coach able; and, he is the best quarterback in this year’s draft and probably would be the best in next year’s draft as well. He had a great Pro Day and a great private workout for the Lions. The big question is whether they can get a contract done with his agent Tom Condon before draft day. If not, they will be looking at Aaron Curry or Jason Smith. The only other big worry is that Mel Kiper has him rated as the Lion’s top pick – YIKES! Strange but true – Stafford played for the same Texas high school team as Bobby Layne and Doak Walker.
· Aaron Curry – LB – Wake Forest. Wow! Probably the best player in the draft. Fabulous college performance. Lion’s defensive coach Gunther Cunningham was impressed with his character. Told him that “your Mother raised you right.” Think of it this way. Curry can play inside, strong side and weak side linebacker. He is just under 6’2” tall and 250 pounds. And . . . he is faster in the 40 than all but a few of the wide receivers in the draft. Question is whether the Lions – having invested in Julian Peterson – will spring another $30 million plus in guaranteed money to pick a line backer with the number 1 pick? Strange but true – started college at 200 pounds and started putting on weight after dental work to fix bad teeth.
· Jason Smith – OT – Baylor. Smith shot up the draft boards based on his combine, Pro Day and interview performance. Unlike Andre Smith, Jason Smith is extremely fit. The Lions’ coaching staff was impressed that he ran 40’s and wasn’t huffing and puffing like other OT’s. Jason is considered one of the top pass blocking prospects in the draft. But . . . his run blocking is not quite on the same level. The thing is that Jason is a converted tight end and he has only played tackle for two seasons. To make that conversion, he packed 40 pounds on his 6’5” frame over the past two years – that’s a lot of protein shakes!! He is one of the “safest” choices in the top tier and likely to be a mainstay for whoever drafts him.
· Eugene Monroe – OT – Virginia. Monroe is so good that Brandon Albert who is now with the Chiefs was shifted to a guard position at UVA. But . . . Monroe has had some problems with big and quick defensive ends and he is not a locker room leader. Monroe is probably a notch below the first three players listed above, but the premium on pass blocking left tackles puts him in the top tier. He is one of fifteen children. So Monroe is used to competing for a place at the table. The major question is whether Monroe’s knee – injured in past – will cause some pause by teams concerned about his longevity in the pros?
· Brian Orakpo – DE – Texas. Orakpo is a physical freak. 6’3 ½” and 261 pounds and extremely quick. He bench presses over 500 pounds; ran a 4.63 at the combine; and, has a 40’ vertical leap. Hard to imagine! Only question is where a team wants to play him – DE or OLB? Limited experience in pass coverage . . . so OLB will take some time to learn. But, he is a force on run stop and pass rush.
Picks from Six to Twenty:
· Michael Crabtree – WR – Texas Tech. Almost all analysts put Michael Crabtree in the top five picks in the draft and show him as the top receiver on the board. Sorry . . . but I have real questions about him. Crabtree comes out of a spread offense; he’s not really fast; and, he had a foot stress fracture. This guy could be great or he could be a bust. The plus is that he’s strong and gets separation, but a lot of run and shoot college success stories don’t translate that way in the pros. So . . . Detroit, please stay away from wide receivers in the first round!
· B.J.Raji – DT – Boston College. At 6’1 ½” and 334 pounds, Raji meets the definition of “wide body.” But . . . he also is quick and agile as demonstrated at his pro day. He is the proverbial “dancing bear.” Raji is the top DT in the class and he is the only DT that can run stuff and pass rush at the top level. However, he was suspended for one year and rumors are rampant that he failed the combine drug test. That said . . . he got good marks for working out during his suspension and supporting the team. And . . . the drug test rumors were just that – rumors – as the league just notified teams that his test results were clean.
· Andre Smith – OT – Alabama. Smith was the Outland Trophy winner for the best interior lineman in 2008. He played great and the tape shows him a devastating run blocker and a reasonably good pass blocker. The issue with him is weight and conditioning. If he is fat, Smith ends up a right tackle or guard and not a premier left tackle. My beef is as follows – the combine date is not a secret and he showed up fat and out of shape. By his Pro Day, he had dropped 25 pounds but Smith was still so fat that he had “man boobs.” He’s not strong and he is still out of shape. So . . . if a team burns a top 10 pick on him, they are really taking a chance that Andre will be committed to fitness after he gets a huge pay day. That said . . . on the field, Smith was honored as the best lineman in the country.
· Jeremy Maclin – WR – Missouri. Another receiver coming out of a spread offense that will have to adapt to pro formations. Maclin ran a 4.45 40 and he is over 6’ and weight 200 pounds. Explosive! Big plus is that he can be a premier kickoff and punt return man.
· Mark Sanchez – QB – USC. Sanchez finished up his college career with a scintillating performance against Penn State. He was awesome. I watched the game and was impressed with his performance. Not as strong an arm as Stafford and not as fast as Stafford, but considered a team leader. Question is this - - he only started 16 games in college - - is that enough of a foundation for assessing him as a pro prospect? Some risk of overrating him because he played on a team filled with NFL level talent and in the premier USC system. Nonetheless, with only three blue chip QB prospects in this year’s draft (Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman), he is likely to be a high pick given the number of teams desperate for a QB.
· Aaron Maybin – DE/OLB – Penn State. Maybin is a lightning quick edge rusher. My fitness trainer played with Maybin at Penn State. He was surprised that Maybin was coming out so early (after one year starting) and commented that he is “really small for the pro’s” as a DE. Maybin must have been listening as he showed up at the combine having put on another 15 to 20 pounds. Problem is that his 40 times weren’t great at his new weight. The question is whether he will be a linebacker, DE or hybrid in the pros. Against USC, he had great moments at times and on other occasions he was lost and out of position. Again, an outstanding edge rusher, but Maybin does not have experience in pass coverage and is pretty small to hold up as a DE against 300 pound tackles. Teams looking at him will have to decide where he fits in their systems.
· Tyson Jackson – DE – LSU. Unlike Maybin, Jackson is a big physical specimen. 6’ 4” and just under 300 pounds! Powerful player who is a true DE and maybe even DT unlike the many other DE/OLB hybrids in this year’s draft. But . . . not an edge rusher, if that is what a team needs. Interestingly, one analyst criticized him for “skinny legs” – but at 300 pounds of firm muscle – not sure how that can be a problem.
· Brandon Pettigrew – TE – Oklahoma State. At 6’5 ½” and over 260 pounds, he is the only tight end in the draft that can really block and really catch. He’s a load for defenders to cover and he is one of the best blocking TE’s in the draft. He’s going to make some team very happy. One cautionary note – Pettigrew just finished one year on probation for an alcohol related run in with the law.
· Knowshon Moreno – RB – Georgia. Excellent player whether running or catching the pass. Does both extremely well. Clever moves to avoid/break tackles or get open for pass, but does not have breakaway speed. Still . . . picking up 10 – 20 yards in a burst is no small thing. He’s multi-dimensional and a great addition if used like Philly uses Westbrook.
· Beanie Wells – RB – Ohio State. Big running back at 6’1” and 237 pounds. But . . . he made his living in college between the tackles. It’s not clear whether he can do so in the pros and, if he does, whether his body will hold up. Had minor injuries that kept him out of games for OSU. Some teams are concerned about a problem with a bone in his foot.
· Rey Maualuga – ILB – USC. Ok – 6”1 ½” and 254 pounds who likes to level people. Does that sound like a good ILB pick? Great against the run and able to put hurt on QB’s in the pass rush. The open question is whether he can handle pass coverage responsibilities. Common complaint is that he has “tight hips” – sounds like he needs to do some stretching exercises! For teams concerned about plugging up the middle, he’s the right guy. Maualuga - surprise – has had some off the field adventures involving booze and an altercation with another student. Those Trojans like to party!
· Malcolm Jenkins – CB – Ohio State. Big and strong at 6’0” and 200 pounds. Leader on the OSU defense and solid citizen. Big debate is whether he is quick enough to play CB in the pros or whether he is better suited to safety. Frankly, everything said about his game cries out for putting him at safety.
· Vontae Davis – CB – Illinois. Brother of the 49er TE and former Maryland star. Vontae, unlike Jenkins, is a true CB and far from a team leader. Described by some as the next Deangelo Hall – for good or bad. Bad attitude and top talent. Teams have to decide whether he is worth the trouble. But . . . for he’s expected to be off the board early given the need of many teams for a quality cover CB.
· Brian Cushing – OLB – USC. Big time line backer in a big time program. 6’3” and 245 pounds who is strong against run and can cover tight ends. Bergen, New Jersey boy who goes who in off season to pump iron is a dilapidated “Rocky” style gym. One of three USC line backers likely to go in first round.
· Michael Oher – OT – Mississippi. Already made famous by Michael Lewis story – “Blind Side.” Oher had crack cocaine addicted mother and was adopted by white couple. Supposedly had learning problems. But . . . recent interviews on NFL Network showed his to be smooth, polished and smart in responding to questions. Expected to be among four tackles to go early in the first round.
· Josh Freeman – QB – Kansas State. Just under 6’6” tall and roughly 250 pounds with a strong arm. Also ran for 14 TD’s his senior year on so-so college team, but he was inconsistent throwing the ball. A lot of buzz around him going into the draft. Could go high, but also could do a Brady Quinn nose dive. Stay tuned.
· Everette Brown – DE – Florida. Small for DE at 6’1 ½” and 256 pounds. Another of many “hybrids” in this draft who could end up at OLB or pass rushing DE. Brown, in contrast to some others in this draft, is viewed as a high character person. Mixed views on him due to his size will make things interesting as he could go very high or slide to late first round.
· Peria Jerry – DT – Mississippi. The only other wide body DT who could go in first round. A little under 6’2” and just under 300 pounds. Surprisingly little buzz about him. But . . . he can generate pass rush up the gut and hold against the run. Possible number 20 pick for the Lions if Oher and Maualuga are gone.
· Darius Heyward-Bey – WR – Maryland. Tall wide receiver who ran one of the fastest combine 40 times. Big and fast. Rumors that Al Davis of Oakland Raiders is fascinated with him and could pull the trigger with their early first round pick. Would be shocker as Heyward-Bey was a combine wonder but did not exactly burn up the field in real games.
· Darius Butler – CB – Connecticut. Unbelievable athletic talent. Lightening fast (4.3 time in 40) and incredible vertical/quickness capabilities. Added benefit of being a return man and a game breaking threat.
· Robert Ayers – DE – Tennessee. Stock has been rising since the combine. 6’3” and 270 plus pounds. Had outstanding senior year and scouts are impressed. However, he is a “one year wonder” with only his senior year showing top skills. Nonetheless, his ability to rush the passer and stop the run from DE makes him attractive to many teams.
· James Laurinaitis – ILB – OSU. The number 2 ILB behind Maualuga. Vocal team leader and solid citizen. Son of a professional wrestler for those interested in odd tidbits. Not super quick but plays all out and with skill. Teams think that he needs to play behind strong defensive tackles that can keep the offensive line men off him - - leaving him free to move to ball. Not a superstar candidate but certainly a solid pro prospect.
· Alex Mack – C – California. Draws rave reviews for Senior Bowl and combine performances. Considered the best center in the draft and someone who can play guard as well. While centers normally sit a long time at the draft day, Mack is likely to go late first or early second. Versatile, smart and tough. No red flags. Academic award winner.
· Alphonso Smith – CB – Wake Forest. A real player who jumps the routes and makes big plays. Really impressive to watch. But . . . he is just 5’9” and a lot of teams will be scared off by his size despite what they see on the tape. Also a return threat on special teams. He’s a football player! The worry is how he will match up with the really big NFL wide receivers.
· Hakeem Nicks – WR – North Carolina. Great speed and hands. He came to combine in shape but had packed on 13 extra pounds – not muscle – by his pro day and he was sucking air after running just a few routes. Still . . . should make a team like the Giants very happy is still on the board when they pick.
· Percy Harvin – WR – Florida. Super fast and quick. Able to bust open big plays. At 5’10” and 191 pounds, he has had some injury issues. Question is whether he will be able to stay on the field, but exciting when he has the ball.
· Eben Britton – OT – Arizona. The fifth of five tackles that are expected to go in the first round. Came out early after his junior year. Excellent pass blocker and so-so run blocker. Has work to do on his game, but legitimate left tackle prospects are at the premium.
· Kenny Britt – WR – Rutgers. Another wide receiver that the Giants are hoping will still be around – size and speed to fill the Burress shoes. Deep threat. Describe as some as quirky personality. And . . . some unspecified off the field issues.